Mideast Turmoil Strengthens Sudan’s Regime
Fears of upheaval akin to Arab Spring trump anger at oppressive government; ‘people were scared of chaos’
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Reuters
By
Yaroslav Trofimov
Oct. 15, 2015 5:30 a.m. ET
Link to web article here.
KHARTOUM, Sudan—When it briefly looked as if Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir would be detained in June on an International Criminal Court warrant in South Africa, the mood here was more of fear than jubilation—even among many opponents of his regime.
That is because, even though Sudan is usually associated with bloodshed and wars, the giant country has emerged as an unlikely enclave of stability when compared with its neighbors.
What many Sudanese dreaded in June and still fear: a precipitous collapse of the Bashir regime, in power since 1989, could throw the country into the same kind of turmoil that is ravaging much of the Arab world since the Arab Spring of 2011.
“People were scared of chaos,” said Ghazi Salah-al-Din Atabani, a former presidential adviser who broke with Mr. Bashir to establish an opposition party in 2013. “The images that came out of the Arab Spring put the Sudanese on alert—no one would wish Sudan to go down the path of Syria or Libya.”
This is the paradox of the region after the devastation that followed Arabs’ attempts to overthrow their authoritarian rulers in recent years: Those regimes that survived the political tsunami of the Middle East find themselves increasingly strengthened by the chaos around them—with citizens often reluctant to press for change as they watch daily bulletins of carnage on television.
“Change is a big fear,” said Asma Ahmed, a 29-year-old activist with the Sudan Change Now movement that seeks a popular uprising against Mr. Bashir’s rule. “Even in conversations with my dad, he always tells me, ‘Do you really want to bring chaos to this country?’ ”
Mr. Bashir’s regime in Sudan, the third-largest Arab country by population and size, has played up the violence that has spread throughout the area: civil wars that followed the collapse of longtime dictatorships in Libya and Yemen, perpetual bloodshed in Somalia, the implosion of newly independent South Sudan, and the advances of Boko Haram from Nigeria into Cameroon, Niger and nearby Chad.
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| Military personnel stood guard during a patrol in Tabit village in North Darfur in late 2014. Photo: Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah/REUTERS |
While the Sudanese security forces also battle insurgents in Darfur, Blue Nile and Kordofan states, that war isn’t really felt in Khartoum, a relaxed riverside metropolis, or in northern Sudan, from which most of the country’s elite hail. Unlike in many other capitals in the region, there are no concrete blast walls on the streets of Khartoum, and no particular security at restaurants or hotels frequented by foreigners.
In Khartoum at least, the regime is also confident enough to tolerate the existence of opposition parties and of political debate—a situation more akin to Hosni Mubarak’s Egypt than to pre-Arab Spring Syria or Libya.
“Here in Sudan, it is different from anywhere. In spite of the allegations of the opposition, there is a considerable satisfaction in Sudan,” said Mohamed Eldaw, a senior member of Mr. Bashir’s party and chairman of the foreign-affairs committee of the Sudanese parliament. “People in Sudan, when they look at what is happening in Syria, Iraq, Libya, they become persuaded that the situation here is the best one. There is no country in this world without problems, but we are the best in this region.”
What the regime doesn’t allow are street demonstrations that could challenge its rule. In late 2013, Sudanese security forces—including the new Rapid Response Force largely staffed by members of the Janjaweed Arab militia that was implicated in war crimes in Darfur—opened fire on youths in Khartoum protesting rising prices. Some 200 people were killed, opposition leaders said. The capital’s streets have remained quiet since then.
“The students or the political parties can’t go on the streets to protest that gas or meat or bread are expensive, or that power is cut for a week or that there is no water in the tap. The oppressive machine is much too strong,” said Amin Mekki Medani, an attorney who is the president of the Confederation of Civil Society Organizations. For several months last year, he was detained for meeting with representatives of the armed opposition. “It’s a very strong regime, in the sense that it’s secure. But politically, that is not tenable.”
Even some government supporters acknowledge the need for change while the regime is still strong.
“People think that this is not the right time to think about freedom and democracy, and that the priority is on keeping the country united at all means,” said Khidir Ahmed, who served as Sudan’s envoy to the U.S. in 2001-2006 and now teaches at the International University of Africa in Khartoum. “This should not be a source of euphoria for the government, but an opportunity to pave the way or a peaceful, rational resolution of the problems facing the country. We should not be complacent.”
Today’s relative stability remains tenuous, especially as the loss of most of the country’s oil to an independent South Sudan exacts a heavy toll on Sudan’s economy, said Mariam Sadiq al-Mahdi, deputy president of one of the main opposition groups, the National Umma Party. While most Sudanese subscribe to a relatively moderate form of traditional Islam, dozens of affluent Sudanese youths, including children of senior officials, have joined Islamic State in Syria or Iraq in recent months.
“We are in a place where all the currents of terrorism in the region are intersecting,” said Ms. Mahdi. “Change will come—and if it is not planned for, it will come in the most explosive and uncontrolled way.”
Write to Yaroslav Trofimov at yaroslav.trofimov@wsj.com